Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean figure of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government figures. But, public safety analysts have advised that murder data could fail to indicate better national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had during these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the smallest number of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may obscure days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.